With over half a billion users, if Facebook was a country, it would be the 3rd largest country in the world. But it would also be, by far, the poorest. New revenue projections for 2010 would place Facebook’s GDP per capita in 2010 at just over $2, less than 1.3 percent of the world’s lowest GDP.

Of course, Facebook is not a country, it’s a business — it produces revenue, not GDP. And its revenues are expected to more than double in 2010. But even at that rate (and partly because of it), the numbers still leave some room to doubt  the company’s business model and future.

Average Facebook User Worth Less Than $3

Between the company’s ad revenue and virtual currency trade, Facebook is expected to more than double its revenue in 2010. As AdAge reports:

A new estimate from eMarketer says the company will book $1.285 billion in global advertising alone this year, almost double the estimated $665 million the company took in last year. That figure doesn’t include Facebook’s so-called virtual currency trade, which would nonetheless account for a fraction of the company’s overall business.

With more than 500 million active users, this places the average value of a Facebook user around $2.57. Not surprisingly, however, the average US user is worth a lot more.

As TechCrunch reports, “ US ad spending on Facebook is estimated to be $835 million this year, up from $500 million in 2009.” With the US accounting for about 30% of active Facebook users, that puts that average worth of an American Facebook user around $55.

Even though the average US Facebook user is worth about 22 time more than the average, that still places the value of Facebook’s “richest citizens” at about only one-third of world’s poorest – Burundi (see link above).

Bad Math

Of course, any economist of mathematician would scoff at my calculations. First, calculating GDP per capita is a bit more complicated than this.

Secondly, not all US ad spend is being driven by US users. For example, just as many US advertisers target users abroad, many non-US advertisers are targeting US users.

Nonetheless, the analogy, while purposefully absurd, does bring to light some interesting challenges still faced by the social networking giant.

Facebook Revenue & User Value in Context

There are three important ways we should look at these number before jumping to any conclusions.

First, revenue is not profit. Facebook is a private company, and we have no idea what its overhead is. Essentially, we don’t know how much of that projected $1.285 billion will be tied up in salaries, infrastructure, and debt.

Second, the rate of growth itself is not sustainable. Many savvy investors would be wary of such growth trends. After all, growth rates can’t continue forever at this rate. So some hard questions loom:

• When growth slows, how much will it be stunted?
• And when it does slow, will it be enough to cover overhead, such as salaries, maintenance, and debts?
• Is the indicator used my eMarketer, about the amount of money advertisers are spending on Facebook, one of good marketing strategy or lemming-like mentality?

Finally, what is a profitable user value for Facebook? Many affiliate programs will pay more than $2.50 for a lead or new user. So we have to wonder at what point does Facebook break into the black with their average user value.

Meaningless Speculation

As with all things digital, all this speculation is worth bupkis. Just as Facebook could find some way to revolutionize ecommerce, it can also end up being the next MySpace.

For now, there are only two things of which we can be sure: (1) with advertisers spending that much on Facebook, it’s an advertising opportunity we can’t afford not to at least  explore; and (2) given how ads are targeted through Facebook, the social network will most certainly change advertiser expectations across the board.